A few years ago, not many would have believed that Brentford and Luton Town would be competing in the Premier League, but both sides, in large part thanks to impeccable off-field management, have surpassed all expectations.
On the pitch, the Hatters and the Bees continue to punch above their weight, with Brentford aiming for another top-half finish and Luton looking to be competitive in their first season back in the English top flight since 1991/92.
Brentford’s direct style of football is extremely difficult to play against and, despite being edged out at home to Arsenal last Saturday, they sit firmly in mid-table, just below 10th-placed Chelsea on goal difference.
Having taken four points from their last three matches, Luton head into the weekend in 17th, four points above the relegation zone.
Pre-match Analysis
Alex Lawes, Playmaker Stats: Saturday’s meeting likely to be defined by aerial duels and set-piece opportunities
Whilst pragmatic and defined as ‘direct’, that doesn’t mean Brentford are not an entertaining watch and their 13 matches in the Premier League so far this season have yielded 37 goals (19 for, 18 against) at an average of 2.85.
In contrast, only two teams have scored fewer goals than Luton (12) so far this season with only Sheffield United (11) and Burnley (10) hitting the net on fewer occasions.
The Hatters' relative lack of firepower thus far is reflected by the fact that they have averaged the joint-fewest shots on target per game (2.7 level with Sheffield United).
Rob Edwards' side are reliant on forcing themselves into the ‘position of maximum opportunity’ before taking a punt with the fewest shots per game from outside the box (3). That is a similar method to Brentford, in some respects, the Bees' 2.2 shots per game inside the six-yard box placing them second in the division behind Everton from close range.
Given that, this match is likely to be defined by aerial duels and set-piece opportunities with a reliance on long balls. Luton’s 39.1 inaccurate long balls per game offer an example of just how often they attempt to get the ball launched and that will likely help Brentford’s defending as the Bees manage 25 clearances per game, the most in the division. So, Luton’s biggest strength would appear to be something that Brentford are built to contend with.
Having said that, though, Luton themselves rank fourth for most clearances so with their five-at-the-back system, they will be confident of shutting down Brentford’s own attempts to target their six-yard box.
Interestingly, though, both teams are quite effective and efficient in possession with Brentford being dispossessed on average just 6.8 times a game, the fewest in the Premier League, while Luton are dispossessed only 8.1 times per match, meaning only four teams in the Premier League have been dispossessed less than the Hatters on average.
An intriguing game lies in store with both teams appearing capable of dealing with their opponent's key strengths.
Scout Report
Luton looking to make more history following Premier League promotion
Luton Town in the Premier League, who would have thought it?
When Brentford lifted the League Two title after a 2-0 win over the Hatters at Griffin Park on the final day of 2008/09, the visitors were at the end of a season where they had been fighting a losing battle, after being handed a 30-point deduction for off-field issues.
Though their 13 wins and 17 draws should have led to a 15th-place finish, the penalty saw them finish 15 points from safety, meaning they dropped out of the Football League for the first time in their history as a result.
The journey since has been nothing short of inspirational and now, after a remarkable three promotions in 10 seasons, they find themselves as the 51st club to play in the Premier League since its foundation in 1992. Had they not been relegated from Division One in 1991/92, they would have already experienced life at the new top table long ago, of course.
The last - and most pivotal - of those promotions was secured at Wembley on 27 May, when Rob Edwards’ side beat Coventry 6-5 in a tense Championship play-off final penalty shootout that followed a 1-1 draw, which was marred by the concerning collapse of Tom Lockyer.
Even going into the so-called richest game in world football, they were seen as underdogs by some, not least because of the fact Edwards had been in his role as Nathan Jones’ successor for little more than six months by that point.
Promotion, understandably, put the club under the spotlight. First, there was the social media fixation with the unusual away entrance at Kenilworth Road, then the fact they had to stump up £10 million to bring the stadium up to league regulations, which resulted in the postponement of their opening home game, was scrutinised.
The Hatters’ recruitment was also picked to pieces. Their signings were made with a tight budget in mind, with some suggesting their lack of frivolousness in the transfer market constituted a lack of ambition and that they were simply setting up for life back in the Championship after a brief foray into the big time.
It has not been easy so far - far from it - but Luton’s grit and spirit has forced some to swallow their words.
They opened with four straight defeats but earned their first point after a 1-1 draw with 10-man Wolves on 23 September and their first win a week later, when they left Goodison Park with three points after a 2-1 victory over Everton, thanks to goals from Lockyer and Carlton Morris.
Five further points have come from the seven league games since and, though they have lost four of those games, only one has been settled by more than a one-goal margin.
Taking a brief look into the stats, Luton are underperforming in terms of expected goals (16.66 xG v 12 actual) and expected points (10.06 xPTS v 9 actual), but they boast the biggest overperformance in the division when it comes to expected goals against (32.45 xGA v 23 actual).
There is real potential for this team to make strides against the odds as the players’ experience grows week by week.
That said, even with Everton’s 10-point deduction and the various signs of positivity, Luton are up against it this term; one bookmaker has an immediate relegation priced at 4/11, at the time of writing.
But this club are used to facing adversity and, when you factor in recent times, to even call it adversity is doing the magnitude of their journey back from the depths a disservice.
As cliché as it sounds, it is fuel that is welcome to be poured upon their fire. Whatever happens this season, Luton have made history, but keeping that Premier League status for another year would make those history books look infinitely better.
In the Dugout
Rob Edwards
Former Wales international Rob Edwards played the final game of a career hampered by injury on 2 March 2013, aged just 30.
In the decade since, has been on an exciting journey in the world of coaching that has led him to managing a Premier League team in his own right perhaps even sooner than he might have anticipated.
Edwards made inroads at Wolves - for whom he had played from 2004 to 2008 - working with the youth teams initially, before moving up to work with the first team, even leading them in two Championship games after Walter Zenga’s short tenure came to an end in 2016.
In the summer of 2017, he left Molineux to take over at Telford United in the National League North and, after one season, returned to lead Wolves Under-23s into the Premier League 2 Division 1 after a successful 2018/19 campaign.
Those efforts led to Edwards being headhunted by England and, in the national-team set-up, he worked as England under-20s assistant and then under-16s head coach, coaching players such as Liverpool’s Bobby Clark and Sunderland’s Jobe Bellingham.
He guided Forest Green Rovers to the Sky Bet League Two title in 2021/22 - his only season in Nailsworth - before moving on to Watford, where he was given just 10 Championship games before being sacked in September 2022 after delivering only three wins in that time.
Less than two months later, he joined Luton - Watford’s arch-rivals - and the rest is history.
Team News
Frank delivers mixed injury update
Brentford head coach Thomas Frank delivered a squad update ahead of the Bees’ meeting with Luton Town.
Mikkel Damsgaard, who last appeared in the Premier League in mid-August, is “touch and go” having played 45 minutes for a Brentford XI against Bournemouth on Tuesday.
Defender Mads Roerslev is fit and available, while Mathias Jensen remains sidelined with an adductor injury and will be assessed ahead of the Bees’ trip to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.
Nathan Collins (ankle) and Josh Dasilva (hamstring) have also been ruled out of Saturday’s game at Gtech Community Stadium.
The Gameplan
With Mike Simmonds of Luton Today
Mike Simmonds of Luton Today explains how Rob Edwards is likely to set up his side on Saturday:
“It is quite likely that he will set up as he has done for the majority of recent games on the road, as he goes with a slightly more defensive formation.
“He usually plays striker Carlton Morris up front on his own, with Chiedoze Ogbene and Andros Townsend or Tahith Chong just behind him, two deep-lying midfielders and wing-backs as well, to make sure Luton are solid at the back.
“It is something he has done since the trip to Craven Cottage and has been a big reason why Town are starting to cause concern to those who predicted they would go straight back down.”
Read the full interview with Mike Simmonds here
Match Officials
Anthony Taylor
Anthony Taylor will referee his seventh Brentford game this weekend.
Taylor’s most recent Bees assignment came in May 2023 - Thomas Frank’s side lost 1-0 to Liverpool at Anfield.
Taylor has officiated 21 games this season; he has shown 101 yellow cards and four reds.
Last Meeting
Brentford 1 Luton Town 0 (Sky Bet Championship, 20 January 2021)
A first-half goal from Saman Ghoddos earned Brentford a win over Luton Town.
The attacker scored the winner on a wet and wild west London night, heading home a cross from Ivan Toney inside the opening 15 minutes.
It was a win Brentford probably just about deserved on the balance of play and chances but one they had to work exceptionally hard for.
Thomas Frank’s side dominated the opening exchanges and could have been more than one up, but Luton had much the better of the second half and created the opportunities to have taken a point.